Small business confidence kept diving in November, with the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB)’s Business Barometer® 12-month outlook index reaching a very low 45.6 points. Outside of the past three months, sub-50 index readings have only been recorded during the 2008/2009 and 2020 recessions, said the national organization.
Andrea Piacquadio
The report said almost all provinces posted drops in confidence, with Quebec (42.0) and Ontario (45.4) remaining at the bottom of the optimism scale. Among sectors, businesses in agriculture (32.4), hospitality (40.0), retail (40.5) and construction (45.8) registered low levels of optimism this month. An index level below 50 means there are more owners who are negative than positive about their own business’ outlook.
“Small businesses are facing stronger and stronger headwinds as they head into the last stretch of 2023, with real interest rates choking demand more firmly and continuing to severely restrict credit conditions, while governments at all levels keep adding more fiscal and regulatory pressure on entrepreneurs and employers. Overall, business conditions have seldom been more challenging for so many businesses. Something has got to give soon if we want a foundation for an economic rebound in the upcoming year,” said Simon Gaudreault, Chief Economist and Vice-President of Research at CFIB.
“Looking at a variety of indicators from our tracking survey, there are not a lot of bright spots to report for small businesses, save perhaps for slowly easing labour shortages. But even the latter indicator is still one of the top cost constraints and above its historical average. 2023 has not been the year of the Great Recovery on Main Street, and hopes will now turn to 2024 to finally provide long-awaited normal business conditions.”
The report said insufficient domestic demand indicator has been on the rise since May and reached its highest point since September 2020, with 46% of businesses now reporting it is limiting their sales or growth. It has now taken over as number one on the list of business challenges, with labour shortages being displaced after a long stint at the top. Several other indicators, such as below normal unfilled orders, also pointed to signs of slowed demand.
“November results show increased shares of businesses were worried about tax and regulatory (67%), insurance (60%) and borrowing (53%) costs in November,” said the CFIB.
“Businesses’ average price plans for the next 12 months have been zigzagging over the past four months, sitting at 3.1% in November. Small firms also expect to increase wages by an average of 2.6% over the next 12 months. After peaking in the spring of 2022, both indicators are now returning to their historical averages of 2.1% and 1.8%, respectively.”
The organization said the federal government’s 2023 Fall Economic Statement left small businesses in the cold providing no immediate measures to help them turn the corner as they prepare to enter another year.
“The federal government has been tone-deaf on the issues weighing on small businesses. With four planned tax hikes over the next five months (EI, CPP, carbon tax, liquor tax), and no relief for the looming Jan. 18 Canada Emergency Business Account repayment deadline, small business owners are increasingly worried about their futures,” said Dan Kelly, CFIB president. “Small firms need help, like pausing on tax hikes and more time to repay CEBA loans.”
Mario Toneguzzi
Mario Toneguzzi is Managing Editor of Canada’s Podcast. He has more than 40 years of experience as a daily newspaper writer, columnist, and editor. He was named in 2021 as one of the Top 10 Business Journalists in the World by PR News – the only Canadian to make the list
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