Total SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) housing starts for all areas in Canada decreased 10% in January 2024 (223,589 units) compared to December 2023 (248,968), according to date released Thursday by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
The six-month trend in housing starts decreased from 249,757 units in December 2023 to 244,827 units in January 2024, a 2% drop. The trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total housing starts for all areas in Canada, it said.
Despite these declines, the actual number of housing starts across Canada in centres of 10,000 population and over was up 13% to 14,878 units in January 2024 compared to 13,220 units in January 2023. The year-over-year increase was driven by high multi-unit starts, added the CMHC.
Actual housing starts were 49% higher year-over-year in Toronto but were 44% and 6% lower in Vancouver and Montreal, respectively. This suggests many other metropolitan areas made significant contributions to total housing starts in January 2024, it said.
Bob Dugan
“The SAAR of housing starts declined in January pushing the trend down for the second consecutive month. Despite the trend performance, actual starts saw strong year-over-year growth, driven by high multi-unit starts, particularly in Toronto. In fact, from a historical perspective, we observed the second highest number of housing starts for the month of January going back to 1990,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s Chief Economist.
- The monthly SAAR of total urban (centres 10,000 population and over) housing starts decreased 11%, with 208,119 units recorded. Multi-unit urban starts decreased 14% to 164,789 units, while single-detached urban starts increased 0.08% to 43,330 units.
- The rural starts monthly SAAR estimate was 15,470 units.
- Total SAAR housing starts were up 179% in Toronto, driven by a significant increase in multi-unit starts. Montreal and Vancouver both posted declines of 28% and 55%, respectively, due to sizeable decreases in multi-unit starts.
“The beginning of 2024 saw housing starts pare some of their recent strength after a strong rebound in December. The level of homebuilding is still elevated relative to historical norms, but today’s print supports our view that near-term starts will remain subdued in spite of the recent strength in home sales,” said Marc Ercolao, Economist with TD Economics.
“It’s no surprise that Canada needs to accelerate the pace of homebuilding to prevent a continual deterioration in housing affordability. While today’s report doesn’t inspire any change to our fairly muted forecast, the prospects for BoC policy rate cuts may add some fuel to existing home sales in the coming months, potentially propping up new home building as a result.”
Mario Toneguzzi
Mario Toneguzzi is Managing Editor of Canada’s Podcast. He has more than 40 years of experience as a daily newspaper writer, columnist, and editor. He was named in 2021 as one of the Top 10 Business Journalists in the World by PR News – the only Canadian to make the list
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