The Canadian economy is expected to grow at a very slow pace for the last quarter of 2022 (1.2 per cent annualized) and into early 2023 (0.6 per cent annualized), according to the latest Main Street Quarterly report by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) released on Thursday.
CFIB’s quarterly economic report also forecasts the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, both total and excluding food and energy, to recede in the first quarter of 2023 and reach 5.7 per cent and 5.0 per cent on a year-over-year basis, respectively.
“We forecast that the economy has been on a slowdown last quarter and should continue on that path this quarter, without however contracting, which should make a recession avoidable,” said Simon Gaudreault, Chief Economist and Vice-President of Research at CFIB. “Moreover, while inflation is absolutely not back to normal yet, our analysis suggests it will continue significantly cooling over the current quarter, which should help the Bank of Canada as it decides whether or not to keep raising interest rates.”
The CFIB is Canada’s largest association of small and medium-sized businesses with 95,000 members across every industry and region
The CFIB report said the national private sector job vacancy rate declined slightly in the fourth quarter (4.8 per cent), and 665,500 jobs went unfilled.
“It’s too early to tell whether the labour market is at a turning point as we continue to hear from employers how tough it is to hire and retain workers these days,” said Andreea Bourgeois, Director of Economics at CFIB. “A small business experiencing vacancies means it doesn’t have the capacity to run smoothly, grow or expand due to lack of staff. When employers don’t have enough workers, they have to work more hours or give up sales or contracts because they can’t meet demand on their own.”
(Mario Toneguzzi is Managing Editor of Canada’s Podcast. He has more than 40 years of experience as a daily newspaper writer, columnist, and editor. He worked for 35 years at the Calgary Herald, covering sports, crime, politics, health, faith, city and breaking news, and business. He works as well as a freelance writer for several national publications and as a consultant in communications and media relations/training. Mario was named in 2021 as one of the Top 10 Business Journalists in the World by PR News – the only Canadian to make the list)
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