Canadian housing starts remain flat in November: CMHC

The standalone monthly SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) of total housing starts for all areas in Canada was flat in November, with a minor decline of 0.2 per cent (264,159 units) compared to October (264,581 units), according to a report released Thursday by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

The SAAR of total urban starts was also flat, with 242,644 units recorded in November. Multi-unit urban starts increased two per cent to 190,415 units, while single-detached urban starts fell seven per cent to 52,229 units, it said, adding that rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 21,515 units.

Bob Dugan

“Both the Monthly SAAR and the six-month trend were flat in November. Among Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, both Toronto and Vancouver posted increases in total SAAR housing starts in November, with Toronto up 20 per cent and Vancouver up eight per cent. Montreal was the laggard, with a 62 per cent decrease in multi-unit activity which brought the overall level of housing starts in Canada down to similar levels observed in October. Despite this, housing starts activity remains elevated in Canada in 2022,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s Chief Economist.

The trend in housing starts was 274,361 units in November, down one per cent from 277,044 units in October, said the CMHC.

“This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a clearer picture of upcoming new housing supply,” it said.

Rishi Sondhi, Economist with TD Economics, said housing starts continue to run at a highly elevated level that is well above the pre-pandemic run rate.

“Homebuilding is being buoyed by low levels of unsold inventories, still elevated prices and robust gains in sales made during prior years. Moving forward, we are forecasting a steady drop in the pace of housing starts next year, as this year’s decline in demand starts to seep into the rate of homebuilding. The recent downtrend in building permits supports this view.”

(Mario Toneguzzi is Managing Editor of Canada’s Podcast. He has more than 40 years of experience as a daily newspaper writer, columnist, and editor. He worked for 35 years at the Calgary Herald, covering sports, crime, politics, health, faith, city and breaking news, and business. He works as well as a freelance writer for several national publications and as a consultant in communications and media relations/training. Mario was named in 2021 as one of the Top 10 Business Journalists in the World by PR News – the only Canadian to make the list)