Employment was little changed in July (-6,000; -0.0%). The unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 5.5%, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, according to a report released Friday by Statistics Canada.
Anna Shvets
Employment fell among core-aged men aged 25 to 54 years old (-27,000; -0.4%) and increased among male youth aged 15 to 24 (+13,000; +0.9%). There was little variation in employment among young and core-aged women, and among men and women aged 55 and older, said the federal agency.
“There were fewer people employed in construction (-45,000; -2.8%), public administration (-17,000; -1.4%), information, culture and recreation (-16,000; -1.8%) as well as in transportation and warehousing (-14,000; -1.3%). Employment rose in health care and social assistance (+25,000; +0.9%), educational services (+19,000; +1.3%), finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (+15,000; +1.1%) and agriculture (+12,000; +4.6%),” it said.
“Employment increased in Alberta (+12,000; +0.5%), New Brunswick (+4,200; +1.1%) and Prince Edward Island (+1,500; +1.7%), while it declined in Manitoba (-6,400; -0.9%) and Saskatchewan (-5,700; -1.0%). All other provinces posted little change in July.
“On a year-over-year basis, average hourly wages rose 5.0% in July, following increases of 4.2% in June and 5.1% in May.
“Total hours worked were virtually unchanged in July and were up 2.1% on a year-over-year basis.”
The report said the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 5.5% in July, following increases in May (+0.2 percentage points) and June (+0.2 percentage points). This was the first time the unemployment rate had increased for three consecutive months since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“For female youth aged 15 to 24, the unemployment rate increased 1.5 percentage points from April to July to reach 10.3%. The unemployment rate also rose by 0.8 percentage points during this same period to 5.0% for core-aged women and by 0.8 percentage points to 4.3% for women aged 55 and older. At the same time, there was little change in the unemployment rate for men across the same age groups,” said StatsCan.
“In July 2023, more than half of the unemployed (53.6%) had been out of the labour force (either unavailable or not searching for work) immediately prior to becoming unemployed, while 38.7% had left or lost a job. The remainder (7.7%) were on temporary lay-off or were waiting to start a new position. These proportions were little changed from a year earlier (not seasonally adjusted).”
James Orlando, Senior Economist with TD Economics, said Canada’s labour market continues to loosen. With the population/labour force booming faster than the jobs market can keep up, the unemployment rate has risen to 5.5% from 5.0% in just three months.
“Over 2023, the number of unemployed people has increased in 6 of 7 months, causing the total number of unemployed to rise by 123k. This loosening follows a +10% drop in the number of job vacancies,” he said.
“The Bank of Canada isn’t likely to change its hawkish tone just yet. While odds of another rate hike dropped following this report, the BoC will need to see more of the same before it can feel like its job is done. Today’s report is in line with our expectation for a rising unemployment rate and a further slowing in economic momentum through the rest of this year.”
Mario Toneguzzi
Mario Toneguzzi is Managing Editor of Canada’s Podcast. He has more than 40 years of experience as a daily newspaper writer, columnist, and editor. He was named in 2021 as one of the Top 10 Business Journalists in the World by PR News – the only Canadian to make the list)
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