The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% on a year-over-year basis in December, following a 3.1% increase in November. While gasoline prices fell on a monthly basis for the fourth month in a row, the headline acceleration was largely the result of higher year-over-year prices for gasoline in December (+1.4%) compared with November (-7.7%). This was the result of a base-year effect where gasoline prices fell more on a monthly basis in December 2022 than they did in December 2023. Excluding gasoline, the headline CPI slowed year over year, from 3.6% in November to 3.5% in December, reported Statistics Canada on Tuesday.
Gustavo Fring
“Additional acceleration came from airfares, fuel oil, passenger vehicles and rent. Prices for food purchased from stores rose 4.7% year over year in December, matching the increase in November (+4.7%). Moderating the acceleration in the all-items CPI were lower prices for travel tours,” said the federal agency.
“On a monthly basis, the CPI fell 0.3% in December, after a 0.1% gain in November. Lower month-over-month price movements for travel tours (-18.2%) and gasoline (-4.4%) contributed to the monthly decline. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.3% in December.”
“Rent prices in Prince Edward Island (-0.9%) fell year over year for the fifth consecutive month in December.”
“If you are looking for data to signal a rate cut is imminent, this isn’t it. December’s inflation report underscores that the last mile of getting inflation all the way back to 2% is the hardest. It took about a year for inflation to drop from its peak of 8% to around 3%, but over the past six months further headway has been halting. This leaves the Bank of Canada cautious as it considers when it will be appropriate to cut interest rates,” said Leslie Preston, Senior Economist with TD Economics.
“Despite December’s report, we expect inflation, and the economy, will have cooled sufficiently by the spring for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to make its first interest rate cut in April (see report). That said, inflation is unlikely to be quite at 2%. As Governor Macklem pointed out in December, the BoC doesn’t need to see 2% to begin normalizing monetary policy, but rather be confident it is getting there.”
Mario Toneguzzi
Mario Toneguzzi is Managing Editor of Canada’s Podcast. He has more than 40 years of experience as a daily newspaper writer, columnist, and editor. He was named in 2021 as one of the Top 10 Business Journalists in the World by PR News – the only Canadian to make the list
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