Experienced buyer/investor bump in key detached housing markets in the GTA, GVA and Fraser Valley signals watershed moment: RE/MAX

What are the real estate markets looking like in some of Canada’s most densely populated areas? RE/MAX Canada released a report on Thursday examining housing in the Greater Toronto Area, Greater Vancouver Area and Fraser Valley.

PRESS RELEASE

Toronto, ON (August 15, 2024) –With first-time buyers locked out of the country’s most expensive housing markets, the move-up/down segments, as well as investors, have been fuelling detached home-buying activity in the first six months of 2024 in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Greater Vancouver Area (GVA) and Fraser Valley, according to a report released today by RE/MAX Canada.

The RE/MAX Hot Pocket Communities Report surveyed 83 markets in the GTA, the GVA and the Fraser Valley, and found that close to 40 per cent of markets (33/83) reported an increase in detached housing values in the first half of the year, while 30 per cent reported an upswing in the number of sales (25/83). The Greater Toronto Area’s 416 area code led the other regions in rebounding sales momentum, with just over 34 per cent of neighbourhoods stable or experiencing growth in detached home-buying activity—ahead of the 905, Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley. Limited inventory levels in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley are supporting price appreciation in the detached home category, with Fraser Valley leading with 83.3 per cent (5/6) of local areas noting an upswing in average price, followed by Greater Vancouver with 70.6 per cent of neighbourhoods marking an increase in median values.

Download the heat maps:

GTA: http://download.remax.ca/PR/2024GTAHeatMaps.pdf GVA: http://download.remax.ca/PR/2024GVAHeatMaps.pdf

“While affordability remains the top obstacle for first-time homebuyers, more experienced buyers and investors are taking advantage of softer housing values, making their moves ahead of the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) end to quantitative tightening,” says RE/MAX President Christopher Alexander. “Pent-up demand continues to build, with an estimated 20,000 to 25,000 buyers currently lying in wait in the GTA, and another 5,000 buyers in the Greater Vancouver area ready to pull the trigger. The first interest rate cut in June did little to incentivize buyers, but early indications show the second may have struck a nerve.”

To illustrate, the 10-year average for sales in the Greater Toronto area is just over 92,000 annually. Given last year’s drop to 66,000 sales and just over 75,000 homes sold in 2022, the region’s real estate market has seen a shortfall of 43,000 sales over the past two years alone. The same argument can be made for the Greater Vancouver Area, where sales have typically averaged over 33,000 annually over the past decade. Over 26,000 homes sold last year while close to 29,000 homes sold in 2022, which is about 11,000 transactions short of traditional levels.

“While buying intentions slowed, new household formation, lifecycle events, immigration and population growth have continued,” says Alexander. “The right conditions will undoubtably unleash demand. Meantime, certain neighbourhoods have proven stronger than others.”

In the Greater Toronto area, pockets that posted notable percentage gains in home-buying activity include Dufferin Grove, Little Portugal, Trinity-Bellwoods, Palmerston-Little Italy, Niagara, University, Kensington-Chinatown, Bay St. Corridor, Waterfront Communities (C01); Oakwood Village, Humewood-Cedarvale, Yonge-Eglinton, Forest Hill South (C03); Rosedale-Moore Park (C09); Leaside, Thorncliffe Park, Flemingdon Park (C11); Rockcliffe-Smythe, Keelesdale- Eglinton West, Caledonia-Fairbank, Corso Italia-Davenport, Weston-Pelham Park (W03).

“Vibrant downtown/midtown communities remain a perennial favourite with purchasers in Toronto, with buyers vying for detached properties in coveted blue-chip neighbourhoods such as Rosedale-Moore Park, Forest Hill South, the Kingsway, Leaside, and The Beaches, as well as gentrified areas including Trinity-Bellwoods, Palmerston- Little Italy, and Corso Italia-Davenport,” says Alexander. “The ongoing evolution of these neighbourhoods continues to prop up demand as buyers at all price points are drawn to their attractive walkability scores, entertainment and amenities, including parks, restaurants, trendy shops and cafes.”

In Greater Vancouver, Bowen Island led with a 36.8 per cent upswing in sales, followed by West Vancouver/Howe Sound at 8.7 per cent; Sunshine Coast at 6.7 per cent; Port Coquitlam at three per cent; and Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows at 2.7 per cent. North Delta was the only market in the Fraser Valley to report an increase in sales, rising 6.4 per cent over year-ago levels for the same period.

“Recreational communities are represented in the top markets in the GVA, with many buyers seeking to combine the joy of nature with access to the city. Areas such as the Sunshine Coast and Squamish in particular are experiencing a strong uptick in recent years that is also lifestyle driven,” explains Alexander, adding that Bowen Island has increased in popularity, but is only accessible by ferry, making it a true recreational destination.

Fraser Valley and the Greater Vancouver Area stood out in terms of the number of communities reporting an increase in detached median values the first half of the year, led by Squamish (14.2 per cent to $1,570,000), Burnaby (10.8 per cent to $2,160,000), and Port Coquitlam (8.6 per cent to $1,465,000). Other pockets reporting rising median prices included North Vancouver (8.3 per cent to $2,275,000), Richmond (five per cent to $2,100,000), Vancouver East (4.6 per cent $1,974,950); and Whistler-Pemberton (3.4 per cent to $2,350,000). In the Fraser Valley, more nominal increases, ranging from .08 per cent to 3.3 per cent, were posted in Abbotsford, Mission, White Rock/South Surrey, Langley, North Delta, and the City of Surrey.

In the Greater Toronto Area, 40 per cent of communities in the 905 reported an upswing in average price, with the highest gains reported in Scugog in Durham Region (9.3 per cent to $1,090,069) and Stouffville in York Region (six per cent to $1,641,821). Upward trending, albeit more moderate, was also reported in detached house values in York Region—Aurora (2.6 per cent to $1,707,177), Newmarket (1.7 per cent to $1,362,331), Richmond Hill (0.8 per cent to $2,009,410); Durham Region—Brock (0.2 per cent to $766,933), Uxbridge (4.6 per cent $1,433,054); and Halton Region—Burlington (2.2 per cent to $1,480,854), Halton Hills (1.7 per cent to $1,230,986), and Oakville (0.7 per cent to $2,042,863).

In Toronto Proper, almost 29 per cent (10/35) of markets registered upward momentum in detached housing values. Toronto’s West End led in terms of rising housing values, with five of 10 neighbourhoods experiencing an upswing in average price. The highest increase was noted in the Kingsway South, Princess-Rosethorn, Edenbridge Humber Valley, Islington-City Centre West, Etobicoke-West Mall, Markland Wood, and Eringate-Centennial-West Deane (W08) where detached values rose 9.1 per cent to $1,824,330, followed by High Park North, Junction Area, Runnymede-Bloor West Village, Lambton-Baby Point, Dovercourt-Wallace, and Emerson Junction (W02) at 7.8 per cent to $1,751,504. The Beaches, Woodbine Corridor and East-End Danforth (E02) rounded out the top three markets in the 416, jumping 6.3 per cent to $1,897,167.

Many purchasers in today’s market are first-time trade-up buyers, moving from semi-detached homes, townhomes, or link dwellings to detached housing,” says Alexander. “This cohort has been fortunate in the sense that the entry- level price range has been relatively sheltered from downward pressure and has made the step up to a single- detached ownership less onerous than in past years. While affordability remains top of mind, first-time trade-up buyers were active in various pockets and price points.”

The RE/MAX Hot Pocket Communities Report also identified several notable trends in the GTA, GVA and Fraser Valley:

• Disenchanted condominium investors have shifted their attention to detached housing on small lots in the GTA’s east end. A joint report, recently released by Urbanation and CIBC Economics, on investor losses in late July found that, on average, condo investors who closed on their newly completed units in 2023 experienced negative cash flow of close to $600 per month. Given that statistic, it’s not that surprising that investors are revisiting their investment options.
• Empty nesters and retirees in Halton Region are buying up bungalows—many with attached two-car garages on good sized lots—for future use and renting them out in the interim.
• Blue-chip neighbourhoods remain robust, with home-buying activity in Leaside, Rosedale, and the Kingsway up over year-ago levels. The Beaches and Vancouver West experienced an uptick in detached values year over year.
• Chronically undersupplied micro-markets in Toronto’s downtown/midtown are experiencing healthy demand, with multiple offers a frequent occurrence. Unlike 2021/2022, accepted offers were rarely over list price.
• An influx of buyers into West Vancouver/Howe Sound in Vancouver Proper is attributed to an anticipated uptick in housing values as the Bank of Canada (BoC) winds down its quantitative tightening mandate.
• Durham Region is the GTA’s most affordable district for detached housing with average prices under $1 million in multiple communities. Softer housing values north of the GTA have sparked an increase in demand in more affordable areas including Newmarket and Stouffville.
• Overall trade-up buyers are taking advantage of lower values to take the next step in home ownership, especially in the top end of the GTA. Detached housing sales over the $5-million price point in the Greater Toronto Area are up close to 19 per cent, with 127 detached sales reported in the GTA in the first six months of the year, compared to 107 sold during the same period in 2023.

• Taxes remain an obstacle, particularly in Greater Vancouver where both residents and non-residents are faced with the city’s empty house tax. On a vacant $1.5-million property that is not a principal residence, the 3.5 per cent rate would bring the annual tax bill to $52,500 (3 per cent city/0.5 per cent province). The cost would be even greater for a foreign owner or satellite family.
• Some investors in the GVA are upscaling their principal residences in lieu of purchasing investment properties to circumvent the recently implemented capital gains increase.Affordable housing options remain sought after throughout the GTA, GVA and Fraser Valley. The top five housing markets identify communities where home ownership is a possibility for first-time buyers with prices under the $1 million benchmark. Durham, Dufferin and York, as three of the fastest-growing regions in the GTA’s 905, are home to the top four most affordable neighbourhoods, offering detached housing options under $1 million. The Sunshine Coast in Greater Vancouver with a median price of $945,857 rounds out the top five.“On the whole, while home-buying activity is down, a slow recovery is underway,” says Alexander. “Sidelined buyers are expected to make their way back into housing markets, albeit cautiously for now. Improving fundamentals in the months ahead should stimulate greater momentum into the fall and through the beginning of 2025. While improving interest rates will help, it’s undeniable that some first-time buyers are up against considerable challenges likely to temper momentum at the entry level.”There are still some policy levers that could remove barriers to affordable home ownership. Recently announced government intervention in terms of longer amortization periods (30 years) for insured resale home purchasers, similar to what’s been introduced for new construction, will enable more buyers to enter the market. However, given high housing values in major markets in Ontario and British Columbia, it may not prove enough. Extending the same option to resale homes over $1 million should be considered in order to alleviate some of the country’s current housing crisis to a greater extent.“That said, all boats rise with the tide – once the first-time buyers segment gains greater traction, we should see a ripple effect,” says Alexander. “We’re not there quite yet, but the tide is beginning to turn. Overall home sales in the GTA in July, for example, were up 3.3 per cent compared to July 2023. Meanwhile, sales in the first six months of 2024 are down just four per cent compared to this same period one year ago. It’s a sign that the gap is closing amid growing buyer confidence. The only dark cloud on the horizon is the possibility of a U.S. recession given stock market volatility that recently culminated in a Black Friday/Black Monday. While a rebound followed, a disappointing U.S. jobs report in July, combined with the U.S. Feds decision to hold interest rates once again, has dampened the outlook of some analysts. With closely tied economies, Canada is not insulated, so expect buyers to stay tuned to any possible economic headwinds.”

  Market-by-Market Overview

Vancouver Proper

At luxury price points – most over $5 million – many sellers are pulling their detached listings while they take a summer ‘break.’ However, non-residents at the upper-end are laser-focused on selling their properties before they are faced with the prospect of another vacancy tax in 2025. As a result, there has been an upswing in the number of high-end homes currently listed for sale, with the average days on market hovering at 70.

Little activity is occurring in the upper end of the market, with 125 sales occurring over $5 million in Greater Vancouver, down just over 17 per cent from year-ago levels. Concerns regarding economic uncertainty, with events like the upcoming US election and challenges on the Canadian political front, as well as stock market volatility, hampering activity at the top end. With just half a point shaved off overnight levels to date, detached sales are unlikely to rebound much over the summer months, and depending on the BoC’s next moves, the market may not show signs of life until late 2024 or early 2025.

Fraser Valley/Vancouver

Low inventory levels continue to support detached housing values in both the Greater Vancouver Area (GV) and the Fraser Valley, with median prices up in almost 71 per cent of markets in the GVA and just over 83 per cent of the market in the Fraser Valley in the first six months of 2024, according to Tim Hill of RE/MAX All Points Realty based in Vancouver. Home-buying activity, however, has gradually slowed in both areas, after a strong start to the year. Just 29 per cent of markets in Vancouver reported an uptick in detached housing sales, including Bowen Island, Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Sunshine Coast, and West Vancouver/Howe Sound, rising 36.8 per cent, 2.7 per cent, three per cent, 6.7 per cent, and 8.7 per cent respectively. North was the only market in the Fraser Valley to experience an increase in sales, up 6.4 per cent over levels reported during the same period in 2023.

Affordability and lifestyle played a major role in increased home-buying activity, with four of the five GVA markets boasting median prices ranging from $945,857 in the Sunshine Coast to $1,465,000 in Port Coquitlam. Detached median values in West Vancouver/Howe Sound softened, likely reflecting a greater number of sales in the lower end of the market. Trade-up activity is occurring as buyers who have built equity in recent years take this opportunity in the market to embark on the next step of home ownership. When the federal government’s plan to raise capital gains tax was introduced, investors who were considering rental properties upscaled their principal residences instead.

While interest rates are falling, the slow drip downwards remains a formidable challenge to buyers in the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley detached housing markets. Pent-up demand is brewing, yet buyers appear reluctant to move off the sidelines until the overnight rate drops by at least one full percentage point. Sales, in the interim, are expected to remain soft throughout the remainder of the summer, with greater home-buying activity extected this fall. Those who have been biding their time may want to take advantage of softer market conditions while inventory remains stable. Once interest rates stabilize, finding a home may prove to be the biggest obstacle.

Halton Region

Halton Region was one of the top-performing regions in the Greater Toronto Area in the first six months of the year, with overall average price for detached housing up just over one per cent to $1,627,858 and sales falling just short of 2023 levels for the same period, according to Conrad Zurini, owner of RE/MAX Escarpment Realty.

Milton was the sole market to experience an uptick in detached sales this year, rising two per cent to 395 units. Lower housing values combined with a good selection of properties listed for sale have attracted a fair number of buyers to the area. Average price climbed nominally in Burlington, Halton Hills, and Oakville, with increases of 2.2 per cent, 1.7 per cent, and just under one per cent respectively. Demand for detached housing was most evident on the peripheral areas bordering Oakville, including Burlington’s east end and Peel Region’s west end.

Value-conscious buyers are behind the push for detached housing, gravitating towards communities with good infrastructure, including GO train access to Downtown Toronto. Two-storey homes are most popular with families moving out of Toronto’s core, while bungalows on generous lot sizes tend to appeal to empty nester and retirees who are downsizing. This trend is especially evident in West Oakville where moderate priced bungalows on good size lots are moving fast. Some of these purchasers, not quite ready to make the leap but looking to secure ownership now, are purchasing with the intent of renting the property out until they are ready to officially make the move.

York Region

While affordability continues to be a monumental challenge for first time buyers in York Region, existing homeowners with equity are cautiously entering the market, according to Cam Forbes of RE/MAX Realtron Realty. Opportunities exist throughout the region at present, with the most affordable communities including Newmarket and Stouffville experiencing some upward pressure on values. Overall inventory levels for detached housing product have improved in York Region, with a good selection of detached properties available for sale. Values have moderated, down 1.1 per cent in the first six months of 2024, compared to year-ago levels.

Despite softer housing values and a plethora of “deals” available, the first step to home ownership — the condominium market—is struggling, with 8,806 active condominium apartment listings on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) in June, and 28,163 new units completed in the last four quarters in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA), according to the latest data report by Urbanation. Entry-level buyers who are hoping to enter the freehold market typically do not have the downpayment to support the size of the mortgage required and rates are prohibitive. Interest rates would need to come down between one and 1.5 per cent to make a meaningful difference in today’s market.

Detached housing sales in the first half are off last year’s pace by nearly 10 per cent, but some areas have fared comparatively well, including East Gwillimbury, Georgina, Vaughan and Stouffville, all of which report activity nearly on par with the first half of 2023 levels. With the traditional summer market underway, sales activity in York Region is expected to slow further as people go on vacation, head off to the cottage, or simply enjoy the sunshine. While there may be a nominal upswing in the demand for detached homes in the fall, a change in market fundamentals by spring of 2025 should spark an increase in home-buying activity, particularly if overnight rates fall below four per cent.

Toronto – Central Core

Unlike markets in the 905-area code, communities in the central core are smaller, more established, and are typically undersupplied in terms of listing inventory – some registering single digits when it comes to detached listings, according to Tim Syrianos, owner of RE/MAX Ultimate Realty. Serious buyers continue to fuel demand in these blue-chip areas, sparking multiple offers on homes priced at fair market value, yet rarely exceeding list price. Overall buyers remain skittish, with countless stories of purchasers abandoning their search after viewing 30, 40 and 50 properties. The nominal decline in the overnight rate of .25 basis points in June did little to re-invigorate the market. Despite further interest rate relief announcement in late July, many buyers are choosing to take the summer off and return to their home search in September, when interest rates are expected to fall further.

Detached sales in the first six months of 2024 have increased in coveted downtown neighbourhoods such as Trinity-Bellwoods, Palmerston-Little Italy, Little Portugal, and Kensington-Chinatown (C01), as well as midtown communities including Humewood-Cedarvale, Oakwood Village, Yonge-Eglinton (C03), Rosedale-Moore Park (C09), and Leaside, Thorncliffe Park (C11), climbing 54.2 per cent, 8.7 per cent, 27.5 per cent, and 36.4 per cent respectively. Overall detached sales in the first half of the year were down 4.7 per cent in the central core, while prices softened 2.9 per cent. Exceptions include Yonge-Eglinton and Humewood-Cedarvale (C03) in midtown and north Toronto neighbourhoods such as Bayview Village, Bayview Woods-Steeles, Don Valley Village, and Hillcrest Village (C15), where prices rose a nominal two per cent, and 1.5 per cent respectively. Prices were virtually on par in Bedford Park-Nortown, Lawrence Park, and Forest Hill North (C04). Gentrification has played a role in many of the walkable downtown and midtown neighbourhoods, with area parks, trendy restaurants and cafes, and boutique shops now a substantial draw for today’s buyers.

The Central core is expected to remain stable throughout the remainder of the year. This is especially true of markets south of Eglinton Ave. Pent-up demand continues to build, with an estimated 20,000-25,000 people currently sitting on the sidelines, setting the stage for a more robust 2025 in terms of home-buying activity.

Toronto – East End

Detached housing sales in Toronto’s east end remained tight in the first six months of the year, with local communities characterized by low inventory levels and high sales-to-list price ratios, according to Steve Tabrizi, owner of RE/MAX Hallmark. Strong demand has fuelled upward momentum in average price in perennial favourites such as the Beaches, Woodbine Corridor and East-End Danforth (E02), Birchcliffe-Cliffside, Oakridge (E06) and Highland Creek (E10) in the first six months of 2024, while home-buying activity rose in Riverdale, Leslieville, and Blake-Jones (E01), Wexford, Maryvale, Clairlea-Birchmount, and Dorset Park (E04) and Highland Creek, West Hill and Scarborough Rouge (E10). With an average of 12.6 listing days on market in June, the East End, and more specifically, established neighbourhoods near the waterfront, remains exceptionally popular with young buyers and those with families. Overall, sales were down a modest 3.4 per cent in East Toronto neighbourhoods in the first half of the year.

Despite a two per cent dip in average price in east end markets, affordability remains top of mind in the area, with many buyers looking for single-detached homes in the sweet spot between $1.5 million and $2 million. Most sellers, however, are staying put, content with vibrant communities, good schools, and proximity to amenities and transportation, leaving many buyers waiting in the wings. There has also been a recent influx of investors who have shifted from the condominium space to the East End, where smaller homes on 25- to 35-ft. frontage with the potential for laneway housing offer an excellent return in terms of rental income. Pent-up demand is also building at certain price points but accumulating a downpayment and higher carrying costs are proving insurmountable for many first-time buyers. Those purchasers able to save a downpayment are now travelling further east in the hopes of realizing home ownership in Durham Region, where communities such as Brock, Oshawa, and Clarington offer detached housing under the $1 million price point.

Trade-up activity is occurring to a certain extent, which has contributed to higher values in some areas as more expensive homes are sold. Some homeowners are upgrading within their neighbourhoods, while others are expanding their search into communities within the central core where values for larger homes on more generous lot sizes have softened. With two rate cuts in the rear-view mirror, it may take until late fall of 2024 or early 2025 before the market truly awakens. But when opportunity finally aligns with affordability, the market is expected to gain momentum quickly.

About the RE/MAX Network

As one of the leading global real estate franchisors, RE/MAX, LLC is a subsidiary of RE/MAX Holdings (NYSE: RMAX) with more than 140,000 agents in almost 9,000 offices with a presence in more than 110 countries and territories. RE/MAX Canada refers to RE/MAX of Western Canada (1998), LLC and RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada, Inc., and RE/MAX Promotions, Inc., each of which are affiliates of RE/MAX, LLC. Nobody in the world sells more real estate than RE/MAX, as measured by residential transaction sides.

RE/MAX was founded in 1973 by Dave and Gail Liniger, with an innovative, entrepreneurial culture affording its agents and franchisees the flexibility to operate their businesses with great independence. RE/MAX agents have lived, worked and served in their local communities for decades, raising millions of dollars every year for Children’s Miracle Network Hospitals® and other charities. To learn more about RE/MAX, to search home listings or find an agent in your community, please visit remax.ca. For the latest news from RE/MAX Canada, please

visit blog.remax.ca.

Mario Toneguzzi

Mario Toneguzzi is Managing Editor of Canada’s Podcast. He has more than 40 years of experience as a daily newspaper writer, columnist, and editor. He was named in 2021 as one of the Top 10 Business Journalists in the World by PR News – the only Canadian to make the list. He was also named by RETHINK to its global list of Top Retail Experts 2024.

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