Canadian employment little changed in November

Employment was little changed (+10,000) in November, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.1 percentage points to 5.1%, according to a report released Friday by Statistics Canada.

Employment was up among women in the core working ages of 25 to 54, and declined among young men aged 15 to 24. It was little changed among the other main demographic groups. The employment rate among core-aged women reached a new record high of 81.6% in November, added the federal agency.

Paul Efe

“Employment rose in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing; manufacturing; as well as in information, culture, and recreation. At the same time, it fell in several industries, including construction and wholesale and retail trade,” it said.

“While employment increased in Quebec, it declined in five provinces, including Alberta and British Columbia.

“Year-over-year growth in the average hourly wages of employees remained above 5% for a sixth consecutive month in November, up 5.6% (+$1.71 to $32.11) compared with November 2021 (not seasonally adjusted). After increasing 0.7% in October, total hours worked were little changed in November. Compared with 12 months earlier, total hours worked were up 1.8%.”

The fairly stagnant employment followed an increase of 108,000 (+0.6%) in October.

“The number of people employed on a full-time basis increased by 51,000 (+0.3%) in November. Since November 2021, when full-time employment first surpassed its pre-COVID-19 pandemic level, full-time work has grown by 460,000 (+2.9%), concentrated among core-aged men (+212,000; +3.5%) and women (+169,000; +3.4%). Notable year-over-year gains in full-time work were also seen among young men aged 15 to 24 (+49,000; +6.8%). Overall, the share of workers employed on a full-time basis increased by 0.8 percentage points to 81.9% in the 12 months to November,” added StatsCan

“In contrast, part-time employment was little changed for a sixth consecutive month in November and down by 91,000 (-2.5%) on a year-over-year basis. Declines in part-time work since November 2021 were primarily seen among core-aged men (-48,000; -11.8%) and young men (-25,000; -4.4%). Across industries, the decreases were concentrated in wholesale and retail trade (-50,000; -5.6%) and transportation and warehousing (-44,000; -26.1%) (not seasonally adjusted).

“The number of employees in the public and private sectors were both little changed in November. Over the past 12 months, the number of employees has grown at a similar pace in the public (+2.2%; +91,000) and private (+2.0%; +255,000) sectors. The number of self-employed was also little changed in November. Self-employment had been on a slight upward trend from October 2021 to May 2022, but has shown little net growth in recent months.”

Karyne Charbonneau, Economist with CIBC Economics, said after a roller coaster few months, the Canadian labour market moved sideways in November.

“Over the past six months, the Canadian labour market has largely stood still, with average gains of just over 4K a month. However, given still strong wage growth, the composition of job gains in November (mainly private sector and full-time), and the low unemployment rate, this report supports our view that the Bank of Canada will increase rates by 50 bps next week, before pausing in 2023.”

Doug Porter, Chief Economist, BMO Economics, said: “On balance, this report is unsurprising and uninspiring, but still contains respectable elements. There’s nothing here to obviously sway the Bank of Canada’s rate decision next week either way, but it’s quite clear that the labour market remains tight and in solid shape overall. The Bank has expressed concern about a possible acceleration in wage growth on many occasions, and the still-firm result here may keep them uneasy. We remain comfortable with our call for a 50 bp hike next week, with the combination of the surprisingly healthy Q3 GDP report earlier this week and a steady job report supporting that option.”

James Orlando, Senior Economist, TD Economics, said the labour market is still hot.

“Following October’s mammoth jobs gain, we were expecting some stabilization in today’s report. With another 10 thousand jobs gained, and full-time work dominating the underlying figures, the labour market continues to heat up. This is also apparent in the regional breakdown. With Ontario and Quebec leading the way, this is an encouraging bounce back from the weakness seen over the summer months. All this points to a likely improvement in overall consumer spending in the fourth quarter,” he said.

“Today’s report reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada will continue hiking its policy rate at its meeting next week. With the rate likely to get to 4.25%, the BoC will have undoubtedly reached restrictive territory. Though we haven’t seen it in the labour market data as of yet, the impact of the BoC’s aggressive moves will eventually cool the labour market. With the recent momentum, this is expected to take pace in mid to late 2023.”

(Mario Toneguzzi is a veteran of the media industry for more than 40 years and named in 2021 a Top Ten Business Journalist in the world and only Canadian)